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Direct and Predictable Effect

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Lastly, it's important to understand that for a financial interest in a particular matter to be disqualifying, there must be a direct and predictable effect on your financial interests.

A particular matter will have a direct effect on a financial interest if there is a close causal link between any decision or action to be taken in the matter and any expected effect of the matter on the financial interest.

However, a particular matter will not have a direct effect on a financial interest if the link is attenuated, or is contingent upon the occurrence of events that are speculative, or that are independent of, and unrelated to, the matter. Furthermore, a particular matter that has an effect on a financial interest only as a consequence of its effects on the general economy is also not considered to have a direct effect on a financial interest.

A particular matter will have a "predictable" effect if there is a real (as opposed to speculative) possibility that the matter will affect a financial interest. It is not necessary to know the magnitude of the loss/gain and the dollar amount is immaterial.

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